這次由中時媒體集團與中華戰略暨兵棋研究協會合辦的「2021中共歷史決議評估及因應兵棋推演」,時機正好巧妙落在「中國共產黨第十九屆中央委員會六中全會」以及美中「拜習會」視訊之後。

這次兵棋推演再度邀請到傑出的政治學者、前外交官與前軍官等專家與會,大家隨即也在會後各自分享了從這次推演之中觀察到的評論與感想。本次推演的重點之一,在於討論中共會議在習近平授意下所通過的《中共建黨百年歷史決議》內容及其重要性,此決議以習近平過去近10年自詡的執政成就為基礎,並且被中國共產黨視為未來幾年的發展指標。

就筆者觀察,台灣許多學者專家將焦點放在計算此《歷史決議》中「習近平」所出現的次數,比其他過去中共領導人的名字出現次數多出多少,比較這次《歷史決議》與之前中共高層談話、決議等內容,到底是哪一個比較重要。也有許多人專注討論中國共產黨的內部分工與生成此決議的運作機制為何。筆者認為與其將心神花在爭論這些事情上,不妨將重點放在分析於此《歷史決議》與中國非共產黨員的13億人口之關聯性。筆者的憂心在於,台灣的相關利益者,無論是學術界、媒體,尤其是政府,都大篇幅偏重於對中國進行宏觀分析,例如試圖分析中國共產黨的運作方式、仔細檢視中國共產黨與台灣相關的政府決策與用詞,以及其針對台灣所進行的軍事行動等大動作所做出的反應。相較之下,對於中國的微觀分析則顯不足。

舉例而言,若能在研討過程中還原中國公眾對於此《歷史決議》的反應、模擬當地公眾對於習近平的支持度是否持續增長?從他獲得下一任期的理念與正當性來看,公眾對他的支持度如何變化?以及如何將習所得到的民眾支持有效解讀為當地公眾對其政府對台政策的支持?雖然要準確推演當地公眾的意見並非易事,但若有這些研討,我們的兵棋推演可能能獲得更完整的面向。

至於拜習會,雙方的討論重點皆放在兩位領導人在會中所發表與台灣相關之言詞。正如上述所提,缺乏了納入台灣民眾想法的推演,要是現場關於拜習會的討論也能加入台灣的2300萬民眾的想法,此次推演的討論內容或許會更具體且完整。作為兩岸外交、軍事方面的專家,我們應該更深入研討:民眾所關心這次拜習會的重點為何?他們有什麼期許?或者在選舉期間的炒作才會讓某些特定議題被引導關注?

台灣外交部長吳釗燮近日對瑞士媒體表示,兩岸情勢從未像現在這樣緊張。但就筆者觀察,在這樣的危急情況之間,台灣政府並未特意宣傳民眾關注攸關台灣國家安全的拜習會或中共六中全會及其《歷史決議》。

在這方面,台灣政府的盲點與上述所提到的專家學者問題類似,缺乏了將民眾的參與程度納入考量。若能鼓勵台灣民眾普遍更了解當前局勢,進而讓全民在政府決策如何保護台灣的繁榮與安全性時,能有更強大的內部共識,若兩岸關係繼續惡化時,知己知彼,才能更有勝算。(作者為前美國共和黨亞太區主席)

原文:

What Does One Resolution Mean for Taiwan?

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

Twitter: @RossFeingold

The timing of the recent table top exercise hosted by China Times and Council on Strategic & Wargaming Studies was excellent, coming days after both the 19th Communist Party of China Central Committee 6th Plenary Session as well as the “virtual” summit between President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping.

As usual the participants in the table exercise included distinguished scholars, retired diplomats, and retired military officers. Their commentaries published afterwards provide their perspectives on important lessons for Taiwan that result from the table top exercise.

With regard to the Chinese Communist party meeting, the importance of the historical resolution passed at Xi Jinping’s behest was the focus of our discussion and analysis. Certainly, the historical resolution is relevant in understanding what Xi Jinping considers his successes over the past ten years, and as an indicator of what his continued leadership will entail in the coming years. However, this author is concerned about the amount of time scholars in Taiwan might spend on the number of references to Xi Jinping versus other past leaders, the importance of the resolution versus past historical resolutions or other important speeches or statements by the party or its leaders, or trying to understand the inner workings of Chinese Communist Party decision making process that resulted in the production of the resolution.

Little time was spent trying to analyze the relevance of the resolution to the approximately 1.3 billion people in China who are not party members. This brought to mind my own concern that relevant stakeholders in Taiwan, whether in academia, media and especially government, spend too much time on macro analysis of China (such as trying to understand the Chinese Communist Party, government

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