时论广场》台美关系新局 旧爱与新欢之间（方恩格）

3月的最后一天，美国新任总统拜登政府上任后还不到一百天，台湾驻美代表萧美琴女士邀请了川普任内的国务卿蓬佩奥到位于华盛顿特区的双橡园作客，这场会面再次激起了蔡政府是否在美国主要两党之间选了边站的热烈讨论。

专业的投资者皆知，在毫无保护机制下做出选择是极其冒险的行为，所以有时候必须在投资时採取风险最低的避险策略。对蔡政府而言，在美国总统大选前几个月任命萧美琴为驻美代表，似乎是个实践避险策略的一步好棋。

民进党与美国民主党儘管在中国议题上抱持的论调不尽相同，但在婚姻平权、气候变迁、基础建设开支、税收和死刑等诸多社会议题上立场相近。而萧美琴过去在国际间的进步派组织中担任重要角色，美国民主党也是这类国际组织的与会成员之一（例如现已解散的民主联盟），所以在民主党上任之前，台湾政府派出萧美琴担任驻美代表，便已替台美间的新合作关系立下了基础。即便当初胜出的是川普，萧美琴的驻美工作主要重点也就会是延续在川普执政的前4年所建立的台美关系。也就是美国总统不管是谁胜出，萧美琴都会是蔡政府避险策略之下的首要驻美人选。

身为在台湾的美籍国际政治观察者，无论是节目上或私底下朋友聊天，常有人问到我对于蔡政府在美国大选时「押宝」或「选边站」这些说法怎么看。以下我就三个面向来讨论回应这个问题：

首先，在去年美国大选开跑前，在台湾不少亲绿媒体大力宣扬川普而批评拜登，其中的报导内容是否经过事实查核以及评论之公正性，都有待商榷。

其次，在美选结果定案之际，蔡政府执政团队便迫切发表公开声明，驳斥蔡政府押宝川普胜选一说，并强调蔡政府也有许多与拜登政府的友好来往纪录，例如蔡英文早在2015年时就已会见过现在新任的美国国务卿布林肯。笔者怀疑若并未有选边站之实，有必要刻意出来强调自己跟另外一边也很友好吗？

再者，去年美国总统大选期间，台湾政府热烈迎来了时任美国卫生及公共服务部长阿札尔 、美国国务院主管经济成长、能源与环境次卿柯拉克等人物。在美国大选后、川普政府任期结束前几周，美国环保署署长惠勒和美国驻联合国大使克拉芙特也分别有造访台湾计画但最后被取消，这些人物都是川普钦点任命的重要官员，这跟过去的台美之间官员往来的情况不尽相同。

近年来，在小布希执政期间有前任柯林顿幕僚访台，欧巴马执政期间有前任老布希官员访台，川普执政期间虽然也有前任欧巴马政府官员访台，但由美方派出现任高阶政治任命官员来台，在过去倒是很少见。所以对蔡政府而言，将台湾变成川普政府官员退任后在亚洲的海湖庄园高级渡假村似乎也颇为合理。毕竟许多这些前任川普政府官员促进了对台武器销售，也与台湾政府有许多高调的公开互动，加上他们的对中政策，让蔡政府团队在2020年的台湾大选中能大声宣告自己开创了40年以来最良好的台美关系。

鑑于蓬佩奥在这些决策中所扮演的角色，萧美琴代表开口欢迎蓬佩奥访台也似乎是理所当然。姑且不论蓬佩奥是否真的会在近期访问台湾，若疫情平息，我们可以预期将会看到越来越多的前川普政府官员访问台湾。

然而台湾这些看来礼数十足的举动忽略了一个重要的事实：这些台湾所亲近的前川普政府官员已成了在野，现在的美国是由拜登政府执政。台湾应该将外交重点放在与美国新政府建立良好的沟通渠道与合作关系。此外，这些友台亲台的前川普政府官员有许多人都在大力批评现任拜登政府，其隶属的媒体或智库对于拜登政府在对中、国防、社会议题等政策上诸多抨击。

所以台湾应该要拟好一套完整的避险策略，以强调蔡政府与拜登政府的共通价值做为主要沟通的核心。而在前任川普政府官员面前，台湾则应另辟一套策略。如蓬佩奥很可能会在2024年共和党总统初选角逐总统大位，若到时川普不再参选，蓬佩奥的一举一动也都会更加敏感，台湾该如何做出互动、在美国两党之间顾全大局，拉近与拜登政府的距离，又同时与前川普政府保持友好关系，需要谨慎研拟。

（作者为美国共和党海外部前亚太区主席）

Tsai Administration Caught Between An Old Flame and a New Partner

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Twitter: @RossFeingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

The recent visit of former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to the Taiwan government Twin Oaks mansion in Washington DC reignites the debate whether the Tsai Administration bet that Trump would have a second term.

As a foreign observer of Taiwan, who periodically appears on television panels in Taiwan, I am often asked whether or not such a bet really occurred. Usually, a citation to three realities helps settle this discussion. One, is that amid a US presidential election campaign, Taiwan hosted prominent Trump Administration political appointees, the then Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar last August, and subsequently in September, the then Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment Keith Krach (and more peculiarly, after the election and in the weeks before the Trump Administration’s term ended, Taiwan was ready to welcome the political appointed administrator of the United States Environmental Protection Agency Andrew Wheeler and U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft).

Second, in the days and weeks prior to the U.S. election, television programs and commentaries in certain media in Taiwan that are favorable to the Tsai Administration were filled with content that praised Trump and criticized Biden sometimes with little disregard for facts or balanced analysis. In fact, on one television program this author, as a U.S. voter, felt compelled to ask a fellow panelist to not interfere in the U.S. election.

Third, in the days after the election, senior Taiwan government officials felt compelled to make public statements assuring the people of Taiwan that the Tsai Administration did not bet on Trump, which was often accompanied by referencing past meetings over many years with Biden aides who were likely to serve in his government. Had no bet on Trump been made, it would be unnecessary to explain something that did not occur.

As any knowledgeable investor knows, selling a naked option is a risky strategy, and it’s always prudent to have an appropriate hedging strategy. For the Tsai Administration, appointing Hsiao Bi-khim as representative to the U.S. months before the U.S. presidential election was a hedging strategy. The Democratic Progressive Party (other than on China issues) has views on issues such as marriage equality, climate change, infrastructure spending, tax rates, and the death penalty that are aligned with progressive Democratic Party politicians and are often opposite the views of conservative Republican Party politicians.

Hsiao Bi-khim held senior positions in global organizations of progressive political parties, at times during which the Democratic Party was also a member, such as the now defunct Alliance of Democrats., making her a good choice as Taiwan’s representative to a Biden Administration. Had Trump won, then Hsiao Bi-khim would have simply sought continuity in the initiatives begun during the first four years of the Trump Administration.

Taiwan has long offered speaking opportunities, sometimes at the cost of a generous speaking fees or donations to think tanks to which the visitor is affiliated, to Americans (and nationals of other countries) who once held political power. For paid speaking appearances, the travel experience might include plane tickets, luxury hotels, a keynote address at a forum to which friends of the government and the media are invited, and a meeting with the incumbent president. In recent years, during the George W. Bush Administration former Bill Clinton Administration officials visited Taiwan, during the Obama Administration former George W. Bush Administration officials Taiwan, and during the Trump Administration former Obama Administration officials visited Taiwan.

Making Taipei a Washington DC (or Mar-a-Lago) in the East for Trump Administration officials is understandably a tempting option for the Tsai Administration to pursue. After all, many of these former Trump Administration officials implemented policies on weapons sales, public interaction between U.S. and Taiwan government officials, and China that gave the Tsai Administration the ability to tell voters in the months before the 2020 Taiwan presidential and legislative elections that bilateral relations were the best in forty years.

It is only polite to thank these former Trump Administration officials in person by hosting them in Taiwan. Given Pompeo’s role in these decisions, he is an obvious person to invite to Taiwan with all the usual aspects of such a visit. Whether or not Pompeo visits Taiwan, other former Trump Administration officials will certainly visit Taiwan once the virus situation and/or vaccinations makes travel feasible.

However, many of these former Trump Administration officials are now affiliated with media or think tanks that are unfriendly to the Biden Administration, and some of these persons will be publicly critical of Biden Administration’s policies on China, defense spending, and social issues. Some, like Pompeo, might be candidates in the Republican Party presidential primary in 2024, especially if Trump decides not to run again, which makes it more sensitive if a foreign government offers a speaking platform.

The Biden Administration will of course take notice when former Trump Administration officials visit Taiwan. Taiwan will need a hedging strategy for this situation, which is likely to include (though not in front of the former Trump Administration officials) publicity to emphasize the environmental, social or other policies the Tsai Administration has in common with the Biden Administration. Whether or not this is sufficient to mitigate the risk of angering the Biden Administration, or what the costs of this hedging strategy are, remains to be seen.